Forecast for Shopify - FAQ

Updated 2 weeks ago by Emily Shreero

Rockerbox’s Forecast for Shopify harnesses the power of Marketing Mix Modeling to give brands the insights they need to budget across channels and forecast the impact of their marketing.

MMM helps brands make more informed decisions around setting the optimal budget for individual channels and forecasting revenue or performance based on planned spend.

What is MMM?

Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) is a statistical analysis that uses historical revenue and advertising spend to measure and evaluate the effectiveness of marketing activities. Businesses use MMM to optimize marketing budgets and predict future revenue.

Rockerbox's MMM will help answer questions like:

  • What is the impact of each channel and tactic on sales?
  • What is the optimal budget allocation to pursue a specific ROAS target?
  • What is my forecasted ROAS and revenue based on different budgets?

Within Rockerbox, you will be able to create forecasts and estimate revenue based on different budgets by channel and tactic. You can then use our planning tool to set budgets and track performance against your goals.

How does MMM differ from MTA

Marketing Mix Modeling is complementary to multi-touch attribution, as both measurement methodologies are well suited to solve different use cases.

Multi-Touch Attribution Strengths:

  • In-channel optimizations and shifts in budget across similar channels
  • Overlap of marketing channels on individual user paths
  • User level paths to conversion for granular user behavior insights

Marketing Mix Modeling Strengths:

  • Long-term, high-level trends that impact revenue
  • Channel- and tactic-level budgeting and forecasting
  • No limitations on measurement due to privacy (ex GDPR cookie blocking) or tracking methodology (hard to track channels)

What can I expect Rockerbox's MMM for Shopify to account for or report on?

The MMM for Shopify will report on the impact of marketing and external factors on Shopify-reported conversions and revenue. Thus it is currently available for Shopify customers only, as an add-on to your existing Rockerbox platform.

The model will be supported for the below channels -- meaning you can forecast or set budget for the below advertising platforms down to the tactic or subchannel level.

  • Google (including Youtube)
  • Facebook
  • TikTok
  • Pinterest
  • Snapchat
  • Linkedin

The model also controls for factors like seasonality to make the most accurate model possible.

**Note at least 2 years of historical revenue data in Shopify is required to be eligible for the MMM for Shopify beta.

Rockerbox does not include an MMM output for brand search, since it is impacted so heavily by other factors and channels. Instead this is considered in the baseline performance.
For subscription businesses, Rockerbox will include only first-time orders in the MMM model.
What does MMM not account for today

The current version of the MMM for Shopify beta does not take into account

  • Distinct geographies
  • Types of product sold
  • Subscription renewals
  • Conversions or revenue outside of Shopify: ex retail, wholesale, 3rd party sellers

What's included if I sign up for MMM?

With Rockerbox's MMM tool, you will be able to create forecasts and estimate revenue based on different budgets by channel and tactic. You can then use our planning tool to set budgets and track performance against your goals. This functionality is all hosted directly in the Rockerbox UI. You can also export a budgeting worksheet.

Video training within the MMM UI will walk you through both how the MMM model is built and how to leverage the UI for budgeting and forecasting.

Your MMM model will automatically refresh on a monthly basis. The most recent build date can be found directly in the UI

If you have any questions on leveraging the MMM UI or on the output, please use the chat support directly in the UI.

What's not included if I sign up for MMM

Rockerbox's MMM offering should equip you with everything you need for forecasting and budgeting directly in the UI.

Therefore, any consultative support requests to walk through the UI or model output will be available only as a professional service, at an add-on cost.

The current MMM feature also does not currently include

  • A schema to sync an MMM table to your data warehouse
  • A comparison view to compare the MMM output across multiple models
  • A comparison view to compare the MMM output against multiple scenarios

How can I get started?

Does Rockerbox's MMM for Shopify beta sound like the missing piece in your measurement puzzle? Join our waitlist to get started!

Customers on the waitlist will receive updates within a few weeks, dependent on overall demand as this is a closed beta.

As a reminder, MMM will be available as an add-on (with associated cost) to your existing contract. The Rockerbox team will provide more pricing details to you directly before kicking off MMM for your account.

Interested in MMM, but your site is not Shopify-hosted? Feel free to sign up for the waitlist to indicate interest for future versions of Rockerbox MMM.

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